This invention generally relates to a system for use in market analysis. More particularly, the system relates to using geographical map databases and geographical travel time information to determine a demand and supply for a market area.
Before setting up a new business or buying an existing business, an entrepreneur wants to know the potential profitability of the business. To determine profitability, the net demand for the product or service must be determined. One important factor in determining net demand is the location of the business and the defined market area. Using the defined market area a supply and demand are determined. The net demand is found by subtracting existing supply from demand in the defined market area.
Market studies are performed in order to identify the supply and demand for a site in an area. This process may be carried out in many different ways because of differing definitions of the market area of interest. The market area of interest is the area in which customers reside and the area in which competitors are likely to be located.
Market analysts determine supply information by researching an area and finding out information such as the number and types of competitor sites. Generally, market analysts look at many different demographic components to determine demand. For example, one component of demographic demand for an assisted living home may be that a certain percentage of those aged 65 to 75 in the area who have incomes over $25,000 will enter the proposed assisted living home. Based on the number of people in the age group 65-75, one may estimate the number of people and dollars that will be spent at the assisted living home by this age group. An accumulation of these data for each age group estimates gross revenue for the assisted living home.
One source of information about the characteristics of people in an area is the U.S. Bureau of Census, which counts people and keeps record of the number of people living in a defined area along with other identification data. The Census Bureau accumulates this information by house and by individual but for privacy reasons only releases information in groups. The smallest group normally released is a block group. A block group is about 200 households. A group of four to six block groups is called a census tract. A census tract tends to be smaller than a zipcode and is commonly used to aggregate information about an area. The census bureau maintains this information in databases that may be purchased or accessed by the public. These databases include lists of block groups and demographic information associated with the block groups.
Another source of information needed is geographical information that links an area to the census information. Geographic information systems exist that include typical map data such as geographical features, roads, and landmarks as well as the boundaries for block groups. The geographical linear features, such as roads or geographic boundaries, are stored as polylines. The geographical area features, such as block groups, census tracts, and counties, are stored as polygons enclosed by polylines. The two are stored in a table together with census identifying data, which allows the geographical areas to be tied to demographic characteristics in the census databases.
One type of study performed by a market analyst is a point study. A point study is performed when an investor wishes to know the demand for a business at a particular site. To calculate demand for a business at a geographical point, an analyst must define a market area surrounding that point for the given business. Typically an analyst will define more than one market area, such as a primary and secondary market area. One simple method an analyst may use is to plot the site on a map and draw a circle around of the site of a given radius. The first radius selection of, for example, ten miles could be the primary market area, and a second selection of, for example, the next ten miles could be the secondary market area.
Previously, a market analyst would select some section of the map and assume that this is the market area. Often, a junior member of the analyst""s firm goes out into a community and talks to the people of interest and uses the gathered information to define a market area. Then, to determine demand, a market analyst would calculate the number of potential purchasers in that area and the amount that these potential purchasers are expected to spend using the census information, to determine supply, the analyst would look at other suppliers in the market area. Using both the supply and demand information, a net demand can be determined. There are no set standards of how the initial market area is selected or which census tracts or block groups are included in that market area. The results may be easily manipulated by simply redefining the market area, thus greatly reducing the legitimacy of such studies because the results are not replicable by another analyst with the same skills and background.
A system is needed that standardizes the selection of a market area and allows for reproducible studies.
Systems and methods consistent with the principles of the present invention address the need for standardization of market selection by defining a market area based on travel time from the site.
A system and method consistent with the principles of the present invention selects a primary and a secondary market area based on travel time. More than two market areas may also be selected. In addition block groups are accepted as being within the market area based on certain rules, thereby standardizing their selection.
Systems and methods consistent with the present invention generate a map using stored geographical information. A geographical point or area is selected from the map for analysis. A travel time around the geographical point is selected. The geographical area around the geographical point within the travel time is defined using data holding travel time information. Market information stored in a database is gathered for the defined geographical area from a memory location. Demand is computed from the demographic groups in each travel-time-defined area and weighted according to the model used by the analyst. Supply of competition is computed by surveying the competition and plotting each on the map, weighing the results by travel time and other factors according to the model used by the analyst. The final result, net demand, is the difference between demand and supply.